The Bittersweet Truth About Chocolate’s Future

Are you a chocolate lover like me?

When I was in my early twenties, I went on a European travel adventure with my boyfriend and decided to sample chocolate in every country we visited. Then one of my jobs involved extensive international travel, so I continued the taste testing and can proudly tell you I have sampled chocolate delicacies in at least 75 countries. From Swiss pralines to Belgian truffles, from Italian treats to Mexican chocolate spiced with cinnamon. (Not nearly every kind of chocolate, but a pretty decent sample size.)

Last week, I came across a detailed Guardian newspaper article that shook me to the core. The world of chocolate is rapidly shrinking, and the culprit is none other than climate change. The situation is so dire that even the Swiss, known for their love of chocolate, are now seeking alternatives!

Remember the Vanilla Crisis?

You remember the days of plentiful vanilla? Just a few years ago, vanilla prices shot up so high that many ice cream makers and bakers switched to artificial flavouring. Climate disasters in Madagascar, where most of the world’s vanilla is grown, made real vanilla beans incredibly expensive and hard to find. The exact same scenario is now playing out with chocolate. Only it’s looking even more serious.

What’s Happening to Chocolate?

The numbers are alarming. Chocolate prices have more than quadrupled in just three years. Mark Golder, who runs a company that makes chocolate alternatives, explains it: “If you’re a company using chocolate today, you’re in crisis.”

Why is this happening? Climate change and deforestation have made it increasingly difficult to grow cacao trees. These trees are struggling as our climate changes, producing less and less cocoa each year. To make matters worse, about 75% of the world’s cocoa comes from just two African countries — Ghana and the Ivory Coast — where forests are being cut down and serious labour problems persist.

At the same time, people around the world keep wanting more chocolate, which creates a huge problem when there’s less cocoa available to make it.

Our Favourite Treats Are Changing

The impact has already hit store shelves. Some popular chocolate-covered cookies and treats can no longer legally be called “chocolate” because they don’t contain enough cocoa anymore. Companies have quietly changed their recipes, replacing expensive cocoa with cheaper oils to keep prices down and products on shelves.
Just last year, chocolate prices for shoppers jumped 15.4% in one year alone. Over the past two years, cocoa prices have more than doubled because of poor harvests in Africa.

Scientists Search for Solutions

Faced with this crisis, food scientists are working hard to develop alternatives. Some of these ideas are pretty creative. One UK company is making chocolate-like products using fermented rice combined with other ingredients. They use a special process to create flavours similar to chocolate, then add fats and sugars using regular chocolate-making methods.

In Germany, one company uses roasted, fermented oats and sunflower seeds to mimic chocolate’s taste and texture without using ANY cocoa. They say their method produces 90% less pollution and uses 90% less water than traditional chocolate-making. (And major grocery stores there are already selling their products.)

Even famous Swiss chocolate makers are experimenting with growing cacao plant cells in laboratories. These cells can supposedly produce the same flavours and fats as real chocolate, but without the need for actual cacao trees.

In California, a startup company has created a chocolate substitute made from grape seeds, sunflower protein, and shea butter. They’ve raised over $40 million to expand their business.

But Is It Healthy?

Here’s the tricky part. While these chocolate alternatives might be better for the environment, they’re not necessarily better for your health.

Professor Tim Spector, a nutrition expert, says that real cacao contains special compounds called flavanols that are really good for your gut, blood pressure, and heart health. Dark chocolate and raw cacao powder are actually healthy foods when eaten in reasonable amounts. Even though chocolate contains saturated fat, the fat in real dark chocolate is actually good for you.

The problem? Scientists don’t yet know if these new fake chocolates will have the same health benefits. “A new process doesn’t automatically mean a healthier product,” Spector warns. His advice is clear: if you want the health benefits, stick with high-quality dark chocolate made the traditional way.

What Does This Mean for Chocolate Lovers?

As a chocolate lover who has travelled the world seeking out the finest chocolate, I find this situation truly heartbreaking. The fantastic variety of chocolate I’ve experienced — from the deep, rich flavours of South American cacao to the bright, fruity tastes of African chocolate — may not be available for future generations to enjoy.

This is a reality, and frankly, not likely to be fixable. Worse, fake dark chocolate is not nearly as good for us as the real thing.

My understanding is that vanilla, chocolate, and coffee are all solidly on the same path. Crops are struggling under climate change, prices are skyrocketing, and scientists are scrambling to create alternatives in labs.

What do you think the odds are that we humans will wake up to the fact that our appetite for comfort and indulgence is destroying the very things we love? We’re literally consuming ourselves out of the foods that bring us joy.

The question is: will we realize it in time to change course?