The month of November is always special for me because it’s the time when hunting and fishing activities typically slow down. I know this because I scheduled my wedding around the hunting excursions of family and friends. It’s always very quiet in the third week of November.

Our wedding feast was very dull and reflected what we thought at the time was decadence: Caesar salad and prime rib with all the trimmings. Fast forward nearly forty years, and such a dinner, while not classified as decadent, would definitely be on the pricey side.

I get sticker shock just looking at the price of beef these days. And here’s the kicker. Those prices could be with us for at least seven more years. That assumes everything goes correctly.

The Price Shock Is Real

If you’re not a Globe & Mail junkie, like me, you likely haven’t heard the reasons driving the price of beef these days. This year, they’ve already jumped 23% above their five-year average. Ground beef alone has climbed 19%. I’ll bet these days, you’re doing the same mental calculations I am when planning meals. Calculations NONE OF US had to do before.

Eight years ago, the average Canadian could buy four pounds of beef for every hour worked. Today? Only 3.2 pounds. That’s not just a statistic. It’s the difference between comfortably feeding a family and making hard choices about what goes on the table.

The US president blamed the meat packers for price gouging. However, the real story is more fundamental and more concerning for anyone who’s watching their grocery bills climb.

The Drought That Changed Everything

For context, Canada and the US do experience droughts. The major ones occurred in 1988, 2001, and 2002, followed by the severest, which hit between 2021 and 2023. Severe droughts devastate cattle ranching across the Americas. Pastures dry up, hay yields collapse, and ranchers face an impossible choice: watch their herds starve or sell their cattle for slaughter.

This last drought, they sold. In fact, everyone sold at the same time. One Alberta rancher dropped from 600 mother cows to just 400—losing a third of his breeding stock when prices were at rock bottom. Imagine having to liquidate your most valuable assets at fire-sale prices to survive.

Across Canada, the national cattle herd plummeted to 10.9 million head — the lowest level since 1988. This massive reduction is now driving the prices we see at checkout.

The Seven-Year Timeline Nobody Talks About

Here’s the part that keeps me up at night: you can’t just rebuild a cattle herd quickly.

Creating a new mother cow takes a minimum of three years. She must be bred, born, raised to maturity, and proven capable of successfully birthing and rearing calves. To rebuild 200 mother cows? That requires seven years of favourable conditions: no drought, affordable feed, and strong cattle prices.

Those ranchers aren’t betting on getting all three. They’re hoping for maybe five good years. At most.

Think about that timeline. Seven years is a lifetime of watching your kids grow from elementary school to high school. It’s paying off a car loan. It’s a long time to watch prices stay high while supply slowly, painfully rebuilds.

The Ripple Effect Through Our Communities

Toronto butchers who’ve served their neighbourhoods since 1958 are paying 15-30% more per cut. Some are absorbing the costs to keep customers, treating beef as a “loss leader.” But how long can anyone sustain that?

Burger joints that have been community fixtures for 60 years are reluctantly raising prices. A 15% hike on a $10 burger might not seem like much, but multiply that across every meal, every week, every month. It adds up.

For those of us planning family dinners, hosting celebrations, or just trying to put protein on the table, these aren’t abstract economic concepts. They’re real decisions about whether we can afford the meals that used to be routine.

Climate Change Meets Your Grocery Cart

This is what climate change looks like in real life. Not just dramatic weather events on the news, but fundamental disruptions that play out over years and empty our wallets a little more each shopping trip.

Increasingly hostile weather patterns for cattle ranching have created a supply shock that will take the better part of a decade to resolve. And that’s only if we get the stable conditions needed for recovery. Something climate scientists tell us is becoming less likely.

Finding Hope in Hard Times
Here’s what gives me hope: we’re learning to adapt. That Alberta rancher, despite everything, remains committed to supplying ‘an elite product to Canadian consumers.’ This ‘elite product’ refers to the high-quality, locally-raised beef that many Canadians value. Butchers are finding creative ways to offer value. Families are discovering new recipes and protein sources.

This crisis is also driving important conversations about climate resilience in the agricultural sector. Ranchers are exploring drought-resistant practices, including water conservation, improved pasture management, and genetic selection for drought tolerance, as well as implementing better risk management strategies such as insurance and diversification. We’re building food systems that can better weather the changes ahead.

My prime rib wedding dinner might now be a luxury reserved for special occasions, rather than a routine celebration. But the determination I see, from producers to consumers, tells me we’ll find our way through this. It just won’t be quick, and it won’t be cheap.

The sticker shock is real. So is the seven-year wait. But at least now we know why. And that matters.